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COP30: A Polarised Summit That Exposed the Fault Lines of Global Climate Politics
2025-11-27
By Professor Heiko Balzter
When history looks back at COP30, it may not remember the speeches or the photo opportunities – but the stark realisation that the world is running out of time.
Belém, Brazil, hosted one of the most polarised climate summits in recent memory, at a time when climate impacts are no longer distant warnings but daily disasters. From parched vineyards in France and flooded villages in Germany to dying Amazonian trees, melting Alaskan permafrost and Hurricane Melissa’s devastation in Jamaica – the evidence of a planet in crisis was undeniable.
Yet, the summit revealed a widening gulf between nations. Low- and middle-income countries, facing existential threats from rising seas and extreme weather, pressed for decisive action. Meanwhile, industrialised and fossil-fuel-producing nations resisted any commitment to phase out oil, gas and coal. The absence of U.S. President Donald Trump was noted, but his legacy of climate obstruction still loomed large.
The Environment Minister of Vanuatu delivered a stark warning: climate disasters are already erasing half of the nation’s GDP. Cyclones, storm surges, saltwater intrusion and coral bleaching have become routine emergencies. Without rapid emissions cuts, Vanuatu and many other island nations will eventually disappear beneath the waves.
A coalition of over 80 countries, largely from the Global South, called for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels – a step agreed at COP28 in Dubai. But negotiators reported that Saudi Arabia, India and Russia blocked any reference to fossil fuels in the final Mutirão Declaration. This omission sparked outrage among scientists, civil society and many governments, who condemned it as a dangerous retreat at a time when the window to prevent climate breakdown is closing fast.
Behind these political clashes lies a sobering scientific reality. The Paris Agreement has shifted the world from a catastrophic +4°C trajectory to roughly +2.7°C of projected warming. But this is still far from the goal of “well below 2°C,” ideally 1.5°C. Every year of delay locks in emissions, fuels extreme weather and pushes millions into climate risk. Irreversible tipping points are approaching.
There were, however, glimmers of progress. COP30 saw:
- A tripling of Climate Adaptation Finance – though delayed from 2030 to 2035.
- Launch of the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), attracting billions for rainforest preservation.
- A Global Implementation Accelerator, prioritising high-impact actions such as methane reduction, carbon removal via nature-based solutions, renewable energy expansion, battery innovation and reforms to multilateral banks.
Perhaps the most significant outcome was the rise of a “coalition of the willing” – nations committed to a just transition away from fossil fuels and deforestation. They announced a summit in Colombia in April 2026 to advance this agenda, regardless of resistance from major polluters. Brazil’s COP30 Presidency also pledged to develop two key roadmaps: one for a fossil fuel-free economy and another to halt and reverse deforestation.
Belém may mark the beginning of a global movement to break free from fossil fuel dependency. Economics increasingly favour clean energy: solar, wind and storage are outcompeting fossil fuels, especially when factoring in health costs from air pollution and climate-related losses. Countries and companies that obstruct climate action risk being left behind – economically and morally – bearing responsibility for deaths, displacement and destruction caused by their choices.
COP30 may ultimately be remembered not for what it failed to achieve, but for the realisation that the future of climate action may lie beyond consensus-driven UN diplomacy. Change will come from those willing to act.