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What Digital Twin simulations remind us about climate action
02/11/2026
Dr Asima Khan, from the University’s Institute for Environmental Futures, writes:
Every year UK headlines seem to announce another record-breaking summer. At 16.10°C, summer 2025 was the warmest on record; summer 2026 beat it with a mean temperature of 16.5°C. As negotiators prepare for COP31, and as the UK works towards net zero by 2050, these records raise a practical question: what do hotter summers mean for the carbon stored in our farmed peatlands?
The East Anglian Fens offer an important part of the answer. This extensive lowland peatland area has been drained for agriculture since the 17th century. When peat is exposed to air, it decomposes and releases carbon dioxide (CO₂). The Fens account for around 24% of UK peatland emissions, yet they are also one of England’s most important food-growing regions. Reducing emissions here means balancing climate action with food security, highlighting a key challenge in achieving climate goals.
Through the UKRI-funded AI for Net Zero project, researchers at the University of Leicester have led the development of a Peatland Digital Twin for sustainable land management. By combining satellite observations, weather data, and AI models, it allows us to explore how carbon exchange varies across individual fields and how it might change under different conditions.
What the Digital Twin simulations show
Using the Digital Twin, we compared modelled net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂ across the Fens over recent years. Our results indicate that estimated NEE during the 2026 growing season was around 210 kg CO₂ per hectare higher than in 2025, an increase of 12.1%. During the summer months of June to August, the increase reached 15%. The differences were also clear over a longer period. Between May and September, estimated emissions were 11% higher in 2025 than in 2024, and almost 24% higher in 2026 than in 2024.
These comparisons point to a concerning pattern: hotter, drier conditions can coincide with substantially greater carbon losses from drained peatlands, even when land management remains unchanged. This fits what we know about peat: drainage already speeds up aerobic decomposition, and the water table is a key control on emissions, so warm, dry conditions like those of 2026 push the balance further towards CO₂ release. Weather events therefore matter alongside management when assessing progress towards net zero.
Summer is only part of the story; winter conditions matter too. In our modelled results, ecosystem respiration, which is a natural CO₂ source, was 10.1% lower in winter 2025 than in winter 2024, when the region experienced unusually warmer and wetter conditions. This is particularly noteworthy since 2026 is also the year of one of the most intense El-Niño events, which is now reaching its peak as the UK enters autumn and is expected to increase the chances of wetter, stormier conditions. As the climate changes, understanding both seasonal extremes and year-to-year variability thus becomes increasingly important when monitoring carbon exchange.
Why does this matter for COP31?
Climate commitments only translate into meaningful progress when they inform decisions on the ground. The UK’s net-zero plans include restoring peatlands and changing how agricultural land is managed. But if weather conditions increase emissions in some years, improvements in land management may not translate into a consistent reduction in carbon losses.
This is where Digital Twins can help. Digital Twins can combine environmental, satellite and weather data with AI-based modelling to estimate CO₂ emissions at field scale, across past, present, and “what-if” scenarios. Results can be generated within seconds, allowing users to explore different crops, land-uses and weather scenarios before making decisions.
For farmers and policymakers, this offers a way to ask practical questions: how might a field respond to a hotter summer? What could happen under different land management choices? And where might interventions make the greatest difference?
These are not challenges unique to the UK. Drained agricultural peatlands are found across many countries, making their management relevant to global climate goals.
As COP31 brings countries together to discuss climate action, the Fens offer a reminder that meeting net-zero targets requires more than setting ambitions. It requires data-driven evidence that connects global commitments to local decisions, and tools that help us plan for a changing climate rather than simply react to it.