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A resignation in unprecedented circumstances
2022-07-11
By Dr Richard Whitaker, Associate Professor in European Politics
Boris Johnson’s resignation as leader of the Conservative Party has been unlike any other in recent times. The scale of the resignations that preceded it and the consequent need to fill so many government positions during a period when Johnson stays on as caretaker raises questions about how government will operate during the Conservative leadership election.
What makes the end of Johnson’s leadership so unusual is not so much that government ministers have resigned – all prime ministers face ministerial resignations at some point – but the number of resignations that occurred, the timing of them and that many concerned the prime minister’s (PM) integrity and leadership rather than policy.
Among Johnson’s predecessors who resigned during a parliamentary term, Theresa May saw many resignations during her premiership including in her last few months in Number 10. The timings of these resignations though, were such that it was possible to replace ministers one by one without having to engage in a huge reshuffle on the scale Johnson has faced. In addition, at the point May indicated she would resign there had been far fewer resignations compared with early July 2022.
David Cameron and Tony Blair (both of whom resigned during parliamentary terms) did not experience government resignations on the same scale with Cameron departing as the UK’s EU referendum result came through and Blair’s departure having been long planned. Some ministerial resignations occurred under Brown, Blair and Major based on discontent with leadership but not on anything like the scale we have seen under Johnson.
Johnson’s decision not to relinquish the party leadership earlier in the period after the Chancellor Rishi Sunak and the Health Secretary Sajid Javid left their positions saw a torrent of government resignations. This left a lot of vacancies unfilled at the point when Johnson resigned as party leader. Although a reshuffle has since taken place, this has led to awkward situations in which some who resigned have been reinstated under the same prime minister while other positions have had to be rapidly filled or, at the time of writing, are still vacant. MPs taking up these positions surely have had to think carefully about how this might affect their future prospects in government or, for some, in the leadership election. Much of this will be influenced by how far Johnson sticks to the approach of introducing no new policies or changes of direction in his final period as PM.
How does Johnson’s resignation affect politics in UK overall? It leaves the UK with a government that is going to be rudderless for some time and perhaps even incomplete with some junior ministerial vacancies unfilled. As for the UK’s relations with its nearest neighbours, while some in EU capitals may be pleased to see Johnson go, the thorny business of sorting out disputes over the Northern Ireland Protocol remains, with all its consequences for government in Northern Ireland and for UK-EU relations. Government policy on this has been set in train by the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill which has passed second reading stage in the House of Commons. Assuming the bill progresses, it will allow parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol to be disapplied, something many argue will break international law. Other significant government bills are in process at the time of writing. The Bill of Rights Bill will alter the UK’s relationship with the European Convention on Human Rights while the Levelling Up and Regeneration Bill is at committee stage in Commons. These represent important elements of Johnson’s policy agenda but might be subject to amendment in the absence of strong leadership. Bigger questions about future economic policy, especially fiscal policy, will likely remain unanswered until a new prime minister is in office in the autumn.
The sequence of events in Johnson’s departure has led to an unusual situation in government that will likely persist over the summer. But with pressing foreign policy issues, economic problems and difficult relations with the EU, whoever succeeds Boris has a tough job ahead of them.